Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-02 08:19Core Viewpoint - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-oriented ticket pricing and a recovery in passenger demand, with significant growth anticipated starting in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for market-oriented ticket pricing, leading to a low growth era in aviation supply, while demand growth and passenger structure recovery will drive ticket prices and profitability upward starting in 2026 [1] - The extension of the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 and 2025 is expected to boost travel demand, with the 2025 Spring Festival projected to see over 90 billion person-times of cross-regional movement, a 7% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2: Spring Festival Travel Expectations - The 2026 Spring Festival is expected to see a record 95 billion person-times of cross-regional movement, a 5.3% increase from the previous year, with all transportation modes anticipated to exceed historical peak levels [3] - The China National Railway Group forecasts 539 million railway passengers in 2026, a 5% increase, while the Civil Aviation Administration of China expects 95 million air passengers, also a 5.3% increase [3] Group 3: Spring Festival Aviation Tracking - The aviation sector is expected to maintain year-on-year growth in passenger volume and ticket prices during the Spring Festival, with a projected 10% increase in passenger flow and a 2-3 percentage point rise in load factors during the early January period [4] - The pre-sale trend for tickets is positive, with high demand for travel to popular destinations like Hainan and Yunnan, indicating strong market conditions for airlines [4]