Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-02 08:37Group 1 - UBS estimates that AIA Group (01299) will see new business value (VNB) growth of 17% and 19% for 2025 based on fixed and actual exchange rates respectively, with a market consensus of 18% growth based on actual rates, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14% and 16% in Q4 [1] - The bank expects VNB growth in Hong Kong to slow down in Q4 compared to a 40% growth in Q3, but strong demand for the Global Flexi savings plan and sales continuation from September to October post-regulatory changes will maintain growth momentum [1] - In mainland China, AIA is expected to experience a moderate slowdown in VNB growth for the full year compared to a 5% increase in the first nine months, primarily because Q4 only accounts for 9% of the 2024 VNB [1] Group 2 - UBS has raised its 2025 earnings per share forecast by 11% to reflect strong market performance in the second half of the year, mainly due to the present value of future new business value increasing [2] - The intrinsic value forecast has been increased by 2% to reflect the upward trend in the stock market and the depreciation of the US dollar [2] - The valuation benchmark has been rolled forward to 2026 [2]