中电联：预计2026年太阳能发电装机规模将首次超过煤电

Group 1: Power Consumption Forecast - The report predicts that national electricity consumption will grow by 5%-6% year-on-year in 2026, reaching approximately 10.9 to 11 trillion kilowatt-hours [1] - The expected GDP growth of around 5% in 2026, along with the elasticity of electricity consumption, supports this consumption growth forecast [1] - The peak electricity load for the year is anticipated to be between 1.57 to 1.63 billion kilowatts [1] Group 2: Power Supply Forecast - The report indicates that by the end of 2026, the installed capacity of solar power will surpass that of coal power for the first time, with wind and solar combined accounting for about half of the total installed capacity [2] - It is expected that over 400 million kilowatts of new generating capacity will be added in 2026, with more than 300 million kilowatts coming from renewable energy sources [2] - The total installed capacity is projected to reach around 4.3 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy sources making up 2.7 billion kilowatts, representing 63% of the total [2] Group 3: Power Supply and Demand Balance - The report forecasts a general balance between power supply and demand in 2026, with localized tightness during peak periods that can be mitigated through inter-provincial and inter-regional cooperation [3] - During summer, certain regions like Southwest, Central China, and East China may experience tighter supply-demand balance, while winter conditions are expected to maintain overall balance [3] - Extreme weather or tight primary energy supply could lead to temporary imbalances, but coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides are expected to ensure stable electricity supply [3]