美银证券：长城汽车上季业绩逊预期 重申“中性”评级

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Bank of America Securities maintains a "neutral" rating on Great Wall Motors (601633)(02333) due to the belief that its strong model projects and moderate profit growth are reasonably reflected in its valuation, with a target price set at HKD 18 [1] Group 2 - Great Wall Motors reported preliminary revenue for 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% to RMB 222.8 billion, while preliminary net profit decreased by 22% to RMB 9.9 billion [1] - The preliminary net profit, excluding one-time items, was RMB 6.2 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 36% [1] - For the fourth quarter, preliminary revenue is estimated to have increased by 15% year-on-year, or 13% quarter-on-quarter, reaching RMB 69.2 billion, with sales volume up by 5% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The preliminary net profit for the fourth quarter decreased by 44% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter to RMB 1.3 billion, which is below the bank's forecast of RMB 4.4 billion [1] - Excluding one-time items, the fourth quarter preliminary net profit was RMB 683 million, down 50% year-on-year and 64% quarter-on-quarter, primarily impacted by year-end bonus recognition [1] Group 3 - Management indicated that the company only received tax refunds related to sales from the first to third quarters of 2025, with fourth-quarter refunds yet to be received [2] - The decline in net profit for 2025 is attributed to the expansion of the direct sales network, resulting in an incremental cost of RMB 1.7 billion, with the WEY brand channel reaching 421 stores, including 132 new stores that require approximately six months of ramp-up time and involve significant upfront costs [2] - Increased R&D and marketing expenditures for new models are projected to rise by RMB 1 billion in 2025, including investments in the WEY high mountain, the revamped Tank 500, and the Tank 400Z [2]