英国企业信心指数跃升至八个月高点 央行按兵不动预期强化

Group 1 - The UK business confidence index has risen to its highest level in eight months, indicating a potential recovery in economic growth following the budget announcement [1] - The Institute of Directors (IoD) reported that the business confidence index increased from -66% in December 2025 to -48% in January 2026, showing a rebound trend from near historical lows [1] - CEOs' confidence in their own companies rose to +14% in January from -4% in December, reflecting improved expectations for investment, hiring, and sales [1] Group 2 - Despite plans to increase taxes by £26 billion ($36 billion), businesses are largely exempt from these measures, while households are feeling the impact of increased taxation [2] - The hospitality sector, including pubs and live music venues, is receiving support from the Chancellor, which is crucial given the previous backlash against rising business tax rates [2] - The IoD noted that revenue expectations reached their highest point since September 2024, with key indicators tracking employee numbers and investment intentions also showing significant increases [2] Group 3 - The rise in business confidence and PMI is seen as a strong signal of economic recovery, while rising inflation indicators set a higher threshold for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [3] - Economists expect the Bank of England to maintain interest rates at 3.75% in the upcoming meeting, with only one more rate cut anticipated this year [3] - The Monetary Policy Committee has been cautious since August 2024, having previously lowered rates from 5.25%, and there is a consensus to slow down the pace of rate cuts unless unexpected circumstances arise [3]