大摩：中国人形机器人今年销量将增长133%

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for humanoid robot sales in China for 2026, predicting a 133% year-on-year increase to 28,000 units, doubling the previous estimate of 14,000 units [1] - The firm anticipates exponential growth in humanoid robot sales, projecting 262,000 units by 2030 and 2.6 million units by 2035, compared to approximately 12,000 units sold last year [1] - The increase in sales forecast is based on the latest market data and current industry developments as of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The decline in production costs is expected to accelerate the adoption of robots, with raw material costs for robot production in China projected to decrease by 16% this year [2] - Bain & Co forecasts that global robot component prices will drop by about 70% by 2035, leading to lower prices for humanoid robots in low- and middle-income countries, from $50,000 in 2024 to approximately $21,000 by 2050 [2] - By 2050, it is estimated that around 1 billion humanoid robots will be in use, with over half deployed in middle- and high-income countries, including China [2] Group 3 - Tesla CEO Elon Musk acknowledged that the strongest competition for Tesla's humanoid robots comes from China, indicating that competition with Chinese companies will be a "hard battle" [3]