Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2026-02-02 09:49Core Viewpoint - The domestic carbon black industry is facing significant profit declines and potential losses in 2025, with major companies like Heimao Co., Longxing Technology, and Yongdong Co. forecasting substantial net profit drops or losses due to a "strong supply and weak demand" situation [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Heimao Co. expects a net profit loss of 420 million to 470 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 25.13 million yuan in the previous year [2]. - Longxing Technology anticipates a net profit of 32 million to 48 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 66.22% to 77.48% [2]. - Yongdong Co. projects a net profit of 30 million to 40 million yuan for 2025, down 64.09% to 73.07% from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The carbon black market is experiencing a "volume increase but profit decrease" dilemma, with analysts indicating that the industry will continue to face pressure in profitability due to an imbalance between supply and demand [1][3]. - The average profit level for carbon black in Shandong for January to October 2025 is projected to be -137.1 yuan per ton, indicating a significant decline compared to 2024 [3]. - The price of carbon black in Shandong is expected to average 6624.8 yuan per ton in 2025, down 1443.33 yuan per ton or 17.89% from 2024 [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The carbon black industry is set to see a concentrated release of new production capacity from 2024 to 2025, exacerbating the "strong supply and weak demand" scenario [4]. - Demand for carbon black is primarily driven by the production of all-steel tires, while the production of semi-steel tires is declining due to trade frictions and the transfer of overseas capacity [4]. - The disconnect between raw material oil prices and carbon black prices is widening, leading to a situation where price increases for carbon black are difficult to achieve despite rising costs [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The carbon black market is expected to face further supply-demand imbalances in 2026, with prices likely to exhibit a "difficult to rise" trend [5]. - The average price for carbon black in Shandong in 2026 is predicted to fluctuate between 5300 and 7200 yuan per ton, with an average of approximately 6127.5 yuan per ton [5]. - Analysts believe that the carbon black market will remain under pressure in 2026, maintaining a relatively weak state [5].