If Self-Driving Cars Take Off, How Much Could Tesla’s Value Increase?

Core Insights - Tesla's ambitions in the full self-driving "robotaxi" market could lead to significant financial growth, although success is uncertain [1] - The company has diversified beyond electric vehicles into solar energy, AI robotics, and software, indicating a trajectory towards more advanced technologies [2] Market Potential - If Tesla captures the autonomous vehicle market, its revenue and valuation could increase dramatically, with mega-investor Cathie Wood suggesting it could surpass competitors like Alphabet's Waymo [3] - Industry forecasts predict autonomous vehicle sales could exceed 41 million units by 2029 and reach 58 million units by 2030, with Tesla's stock experiencing a nearly 10% increase following mentions of its robotaxi plans [4] Valuation Projections - Ark Invest estimates Tesla's market cap could reach $5.7 trillion by 2029 if the robotaxi business scales globally, while Morgan Stanley's conservative models suggest an increase of $500 billion to $1 trillion [5] Key Requirements for Success - For Tesla's robotaxi vision to materialize, regulatory approval, improvements in self-driving software, and cost-effective operations are essential [6] - Current operating costs for robotaxis are estimated at $1.34 per mile, with a target of 40 cents per mile unlikely before 2040, and challenges in vehicle deliveries have been noted [7]