3 6 Ke·2026-02-02 11:19Core Viewpoint - The tungsten industry is experiencing significant price fluctuations and supply constraints, largely influenced by the dynamics of the gold market and the unique challenges of tungsten mining and production [1][2]. Supply and Production - In 2025, China's tungsten mining quota is set at 56,800 tons, an 8.3% decrease year-on-year, reflecting strict supply controls despite rising market prices [3]. - The average grade of domestic tungsten ore has declined from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28% in 2024, necessitating a 50% increase in ore processing to produce the same amount of tungsten concentrate [5]. - The production capacity of major tungsten mines is being constrained by environmental factors and the technical challenges of mining lower-grade ores [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The global tungsten market is facing a structural supply-demand gap, with production expected to rise from 82,800 tons in 2024 to only 85,500 tons in 2026, while demand is projected to increase from 102,100 tons to 108,000 tons during the same period [12]. - The price of tungsten is expected to surge due to this structural shortage, as the industry grapples with the complexities of resource control and market competition [12]. Company Performance - Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten High-Tech are leading players in the tungsten market, with Xiamen Tungsten's revenue in 2025 reaching 46.469 billion yuan, a 31.37% year-on-year increase, while China Tungsten High-Tech's net profit surged by 407.52% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][14]. - Xiamen Tungsten controls approximately 30% of China's tungsten reserves, with significant investments in multiple tungsten mines, including the world's second-largest tungsten mine [16][18]. - China Tungsten High-Tech has focused on deepening its tungsten industry chain, becoming the world's largest producer of hard alloys and APT, and is actively integrating resources through acquisitions [20][21]. Demand Trends - The demand for tungsten in the photovoltaic sector is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a rise from 8,300 tons in 2024 to over 16,000 tons in 2025, driven by the increasing use of tungsten wire in solar cells [22][24]. - The nuclear fusion sector is anticipated to create substantial future demand for tungsten, with estimates suggesting that each fusion reactor could require hundreds of tons of tungsten materials, potentially adding several tens of thousands of tons to global demand [26].