鲸奇智慧：2025年低空经济发展趋势报告

Industry Overview and Positioning - The low-altitude economy in China is based on low-altitude airspace (primarily below 1,000 meters, with some scenarios extending to 3,000 meters) and is supported by advanced aircraft, integrating infrastructure, manufacturing, flight, and services across four main scenarios: production operations, public services, transportation, and consumption activities. It has been established as a national strategic emerging industry and a new pillar industry. The scale of China's low-altitude economy is expected to reach 851.9 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, and is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2026, with a target of 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035. Cumulative financing from 2024 to 2025 is expected to reach 455 instances, amounting to over 44.902 billion yuan, with state-owned capital participation at 40.3% [1][29][26]. Core Track Development Trends - Drones are currently the main force in the low-altitude economy, with a global market size of 220.2 billion yuan in 2025, of which China accounts for 145.2 billion yuan, with industrial-grade drones making up 68%. The consumer market is expected to grow steadily, reaching 50.22 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on aerial photography and cluster performances. The industrial-grade market is projected to become a growth driver, reaching 77.566 billion yuan in 2025, widely applied in agricultural protection, surveying, inspection, and logistics, with technology advancing towards AI empowerment and long-endurance upgrades [1][32]. Development History and Stage Characteristics - The development of China's low-altitude economy has evolved from early general aviation exploration to breakthroughs in drone applications post-2010, with its inclusion in national planning in 2021, gradually forming a complete industrial ecosystem. The global industry has undergone concept exploration and regulatory construction, currently entering the application popularization phase. By 2025, it will be in the 1.0 "turbulent adjustment" closing stage, transitioning from "pilot demonstration" to the 2.0 scale application stage by 2027, and entering the 3.0 ecological maturity stage by 2035. The 1.0 stage is characterized by improved top-level design but delayed local policies, capital focusing on mature projects, hardware technology needing breakthroughs, and intensified market competition [3][20][24]. Infrastructure and Industry Layout - Infrastructure shows a characteristic of "digital infrastructure leading, physical infrastructure following," with over 300 cities achieving 5G-A network coverage and 487 general airports established, although issues of insufficient total quantity and imbalanced layout remain. Enterprise distribution is concentrated in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta, and Chengdu-Chongqing regions, with Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu provinces leading in enterprise stock. In the first nine months of 2025, 22,428 new related enterprises were added, and patent applications continued to grow rapidly [4][46][35]. Challenges and Development Suggestions - Major challenges include lagging top-level regulations, insufficient regulatory coordination, immature business models reliant on subsidies, high core hardware R&D costs, imbalanced infrastructure layout, and international technology blockades and trade barriers. Suggested solutions include deepening airspace management reforms, establishing unified regulatory and airworthiness recognition mechanisms, encouraging new consumption formats in "low-altitude +," upgrading business models from "selling equipment" to "selling services," setting up technology research special projects, strengthening industrial chain collaboration, and incorporating low-altitude infrastructure into urban and rural planning to attract social capital investment [5][26]. Future Development Path - The development path follows a gradual approach of "first cargo, then passengers; first suburbs, then cities; first closed, then open." After entering the 2.0 stage in 2027, scenarios will expand to urban core areas, achieving parallel and large-scale popularization across multiple scenarios. By 2035, the 3.0 stage will form an ecological development pattern of multi-scenario interaction and comprehensive three-dimensional coverage, becoming an important part of social and economic activities [6][28]. Market Financing Situation - From 2024 to 2025, the low-altitude economy market is expected to show strong momentum, with a total of 455 financing events occurring, accumulating over 44.902 billion yuan. Notably, in Q3 2025, the total financing amount is estimated to reach 10.081 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 77%. The second half of 2025 saw 176 financing events in the low-altitude economy sector, accumulating 18.662 billion yuan, indicating a strong resonance between capital enthusiasm and industry development momentum [38][42].