1700亿“专利悬崖”，罗氏走出来了

Core Insights - Roche, once a dominant player in oncology, has shown a revenue growth of 7% and a 9% increase in its pharmaceutical business, indicating a strategic recovery and diversification in its product portfolio [1][3] - The company is focusing on six key products, including Phesgo and Polivy, which are driving growth and compensating for declines in older drugs due to patent expirations [1][5] - Roche plans to launch 19 new drugs by 2030, with 16 having blockbuster potential, aiming to avoid the so-called "patent cliff" [1][3] Oncology Business - Roche's oncology segment has seen continuous growth for eight consecutive quarters, contributing 239.38 billion Swiss Francs (approximately 289.5 billion USD) in 2025, a 6% year-over-year increase [3] - Phesgo has emerged as a standout product with a 48% sales increase, leveraging its innovative dual-target subcutaneous formulation [5][6] - The HER2-targeted therapies are expected to peak at around 9 billion Swiss Francs by 2026, with a stable revenue stream projected thereafter [6] New Drug Developments - Roche is optimistic about Giredestrant, a new oral SERD for ER-positive breast cancer, which is anticipated to become a first-line treatment option, with peak sales expectations exceeding 3 billion USD [7][8] - The company has achieved significant milestones in clinical trials, particularly with the lidERA study, which shows promise in reducing recurrence risk in early-stage breast cancer patients [7] Hematology Sector - Roche's hematology products generated 86 billion Swiss Francs in 2025, marking a 15% increase, with Polivy being a key driver of this growth [9][10] - Polivy has become a leading first-line treatment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), achieving sales of 14.7 billion Swiss Francs in 2025, a 38% increase [10] Strategic Expansion into Chronic Diseases - Roche is diversifying its portfolio by investing over 20 billion USD in chronic disease areas such as obesity and Alzheimer's, aiming to become a top player in the obesity market [11][12] - The company has made significant acquisitions and partnerships to build a robust pipeline in obesity treatments, including GLP-1 receptor agonists and long-acting insulin analogs [11][15] Future Outlook - Roche's strategy emphasizes maintaining a diverse product portfolio to mitigate risks associated with patent expirations, with a focus on innovative therapies in various therapeutic areas [12][16] - The next few years will be critical for validating Roche's ambitious plans and determining the sustainability of its new growth trajectory [18]