2月全球策略月报：海外新因子，A股再平衡

Economic Overview - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance with little change in non-farm employment and a slight decrease in labor force participation to 62.4% [8][14] - Core inflation has cooled, with December CPI at 2.7% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.6%, both meeting market expectations [8][14] - The Federal Reserve's January FOMC meeting provided weak guidance, maintaining the policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% [14][15] Monetary Policy - Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair may lead to a policy mix of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, potentially benefiting large banks [15][16] - The Fed's current stance is deemed "restrictive," with future actions likely not to include rate hikes [14][15] Geopolitical Factors - Trump's actions are reshaping global dynamics, with tensions over Greenland revealing divisions within Europe and potential short-term disruptions to oil prices due to actions against Iran [16][17] - Japan's announcement of tax cuts and increased spending ahead of elections has led to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [17] U.S. Equity Market - Focus on earnings guidance is crucial, with major tech companies showing strong results but the Nasdaq index remaining in a consolidation phase [4][23] - Concerns over capital expenditure mismatches with earnings could lead to market volatility, particularly for companies like Microsoft [4][23] Commodity Market - Gold prices are in a primary upward trend but are experiencing increased volatility due to hawkish influences and diverging fund sentiments [5][28] - Oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical tensions, but a long-term oversupply situation is expected to persist [5][28] Domestic Market - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with December exports showing strength but investment and retail sales remaining weak [6][31] - The A-share market is experiencing a rebalancing, with traditional value sectors outperforming while tech sectors remain strong [6][37] Financial Data - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates is narrowing, indicating a potential decrease in market liquidity [34] - New social financing and RMB loans have decreased compared to previous periods, reflecting a tightening in financial conditions [34] Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with a focus on sectors like storage chips, AI applications, and commercial aerospace [38] - Infrastructure-related sectors may see opportunities due to upcoming political events, while the Hong Kong market remains cautious [38]