法巴资管蔡德锋：外资正加速回归 料2026年内地及香港股市反复向上

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market rose by 1,757 points or 6.9% in January 2026, primarily due to the decline of the US dollar index from the end of last year at 98, indicating a potential outflow of funds from the US into mainland China and Hong Kong markets [1] - The Chief Investment Officer for Greater China equities at Paris-based asset management firm believes that foreign capital inflow is occurring, and expects greater volatility in the stock market compared to last year, with a tendency for upward movement [1] - The anticipated rise in the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets in 2024 is attributed to low valuations, while a bull market is expected to begin in 2025, primarily driven by domestic capital, with limited foreign investment [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical factors are leading to a more pronounced diversification of investments, with expectations of accelerated foreign capital inflow this year, contributing to a slow bull market [1] - The company notes that while foreign capital has historically been substantial, it has been underweighted for years, resulting in a low base; even a 10% outflow of funds from the US into the Chinese market would have a significant impact [1] - The differentiation among companies is expected to widen this year, particularly in the new consumption and artificial intelligence sectors, as market familiarity with industries increases, leading to a greater focus on profitability and favorable themes such as biotechnology and robotics [1] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor sectors that will directly benefit from policies, as well as to pay attention to orders, profits, and business models; companies with poor new order situations are likely to face profit pressures [1] - The expectation is that the differentiation among companies will become increasingly pronounced [1]