Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell BMY Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 5, 2026, with consensus estimates for sales at $12.25 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.15. Recent earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased, while those for 2026 have increased slightly [1][4]. Estimate Movement - The current EPS estimates for Q1, Q2, FY 2025, and FY 2026 are $1.15, $1.51, $6.09, and $6.08 respectively, showing a downward trend from previous estimates [2]. - The earnings surprise history indicates that BMY has consistently beaten estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 20.05% [2][3]. Factors Influencing Q4 Results - BMY's revenue growth is likely supported by its growth portfolio, which includes drugs like Opdivo, Reblozyl, and Breyanzi, despite facing pressure from declining sales of legacy drugs due to generic competition [4][6]. - Opdivo's sales are projected at $2.6 billion, benefiting from label expansions in new indications [7][8]. - Other drugs such as Orencia and Yervoy are also expected to contribute significantly to sales, with estimates of $989 million and $727 million respectively [9]. Legacy Drug Impact - Legacy products accounted for 47% of total sales in the first nine months of 2025, and their decline has negatively impacted overall revenue growth [21]. - Sales from legacy drugs like Eliquis, Revlimid, and Pomalyst are under pressure from generic competition, although Eliquis continues to show strong demand [14][15]. Strategic Collaborations and Acquisitions - BMY's recent acquisition of Orbital Therapeutics adds a promising preclinical RNA immunotherapy candidate to its pipeline, enhancing its capabilities in autoimmune diseases [23]. - The collaboration with BioNTech for the co-development of pumitamig has shown positive interim results, indicating potential in treating various solid tumors [24][25]. Stock Performance and Valuation - BMY's shares have underperformed compared to the industry and the S&P 500, with a current price/earnings ratio of 9.09x, lower than the industry average [17][19]. - The company is viewed as a safe haven for investors in the biotech sector, with a dividend yield of 4.58% providing an incentive to hold shares [26][27].