避险需求推升美债 沃什任命引发降息与缩表猜测

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Waller as the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has led to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts and adjustments to the Fed's balance sheet, influencing U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields have slightly increased across most maturities due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid a sell-off in precious metals [1] - The market is betting on the possibility of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year following Waller's nomination [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - Mohit Kumar, Chief Economist at Jefferies International, notes that Waller's hawkish stance and criticism of the Fed's balance sheet expansion may not logically align with Trump's preference [1] - Guy Stear, Head of Developed Markets Strategy at Amundi, indicates that the market expects lower short-term rates while the Fed manages its balance sheet, which could lead to a steeper yield curve [1] Group 3: Potential Implications - There is speculation that if long-term rates begin to rise during the steepening of the yield curve, the Federal Reserve may face pressure to expand its balance sheet [1]