“信誉锚”就位，大摩：沃什提名将放缓美元跌势

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Mike Wilson believes that the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman should restore market confidence that has been shaken in recent months [1] - Wilson views Warsh as the most hawkish candidate, suggesting his appointment could act as a "credibility anchor" to slow the decline of the US dollar, which remains a core policy goal of the Trump administration [1] - The recent parabolic rise in precious metal prices indicates market unease regarding the speed of the dollar's decline, and Warsh's appointment may temper the upward momentum of gold and silver [1] Group 2 - Wilson and his equity strategy team propose a "three-layer rebalancing framework," which contrasts with the views of most market participants, suggesting that the Trump administration plans to address external trade imbalances through a weaker dollar and tariffs [2] - The administration aims to resolve domestic imbalances (excessive consumption/insufficient investment) through capital expenditure incentives and trade policies outlined in the "Big and Beautiful" Act [2] - The White House's strategy to address the current K-shaped economic recovery focuses on increasing wages for low-income groups rather than direct cash subsidies [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley indicates that the decline in gold prices and subsequent productivity improvements may provide further upside potential for the stock market, recommending investors shift from commodity cyclical stocks to consumer cyclical/non-essential consumer stocks [4]