两个宏大叙事，崩了一个...

Group 1: Metal Market Dynamics - The silver and gold markets are experiencing significant declines, with silver hitting a trading limit down and gold also nearing a limit down at the close [2] - The supply-demand dynamics for metals show no signs of reversal, with increasing terminal inventories and reduced purchasing willingness from downstream sectors due to high prices [2][4] - The demand for aluminum remains weak, while Indonesia's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing, alleviating previous electricity shortages [3] Group 2: Broader Economic Narratives - The recent surge in metal prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic narratives rather than supply-demand fundamentals, with geopolitical tensions leading to a preference for physical assets over dollar-denominated assets [4][5] - Historical price determinants tend to favor supply-demand relationships over macroeconomic narratives, which may mislead investors at high price levels [5] Group 3: AI Investment Trends - Microsoft's recent stock drop, despite solid earnings, highlights a potential shift in capital allocation towards AI, with investors voting against companies that increase AI spending without corresponding output [6][8] - The trend suggests that large companies may need to optimize AI capital expenditures, which could pressure hardware-related narratives [8] Group 4: AI as a Productivity Tool - Current AI applications often do not enhance productivity significantly, as many businesses could achieve similar results by hiring data analysts instead of relying on third-party AI services [13][14] - The lowering of barriers in software development due to AI advancements may lead to businesses developing their own solutions, reducing reliance on external vendors [15] Group 5: Future of AI Applications - The focus on AI applications may need to shift, particularly in consumer-facing sectors where the utility of AI remains limited [16] - Businesses leveraging cloud services and AI models are likely to benefit from cost reductions and the creation of new business models, potentially leading to the emergence of new industries [17]