债市开年“先抑后扬” 修复结构分化 短期震荡格局难改

Market Overview - On the first trading day of February, financial markets continued to show volatility, with London gold prices dropping below $4,500 per ounce, experiencing an intraday decline of over 9% [1] - The A-share market saw all three major indices decline by over 2%, with more than a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Bond Market Performance - As of February 2, major government bond yields showed mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [3] - The 30-year government bond futures contract increased by 0.18% to 112.060, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively [3] - In January, the bond market experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield peaking at 1.8985% on January 8, marking the highest level since September 2025 [3][4] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support the bond market [1][10] - On February 2, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 75 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to maturing repos [5] - The liquidity in the interbank market is expected to tighten temporarily as the market approaches the Spring Festival, but medium-term liquidity is projected to remain loose [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the bond market will continue to experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield facing resistance around 1.80% [7] - The overall trend for 2026 is expected to be characterized by low interest rates, high volatility, and structural differentiation in the bond market [7][10] - The anticipated monetary policy will likely keep the interest rate increase limited, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.0% [10]