Aflac(US:AFL) ZACKS·2026-02-02 15:46Core Insights - Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 4, 2026, with earnings estimated at $1.71 per share and revenues at $4.48 billion [1] Earnings Estimates - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by $0.01 over the past month, but still reflects a year-over-year increase of 9.6%. Quarterly revenues are projected to grow by 3.8% year-over-year [2] - For the full year 2025, Aflac's revenue estimate stands at $17.72 billion, indicating a decline of 0.6% year-over-year, while the EPS estimate is $7.63, suggesting a growth of 5.8% year-over-year [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Aflac, as it has an Earnings ESP of -3.12% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Factors Influencing Q4 Results - Aflac is expected to report Q4 EPS of $1.71 on $4.48 billion revenue, indicating 9.6% earnings growth and 3.8% sales growth. Net earned premiums are anticipated to rise by 3%, with U.S. revenues increasing by 5.1% and Japan by 1% [7] - The total benefit to premium ratio for Aflac Japan is projected at 64.7, down from 66.5 a year ago, with a 3.4% growth in pre-tax adjusted earnings. However, the U.S. benefit to premium ratio is expected to rise to 48.9 from 46.3, with a projected 7.1% decline in pre-tax adjusted earnings [9] - Aflac's net investment income is expected to decline by 5% year-over-year, which may offset some positive factors, making an earnings beat uncertain [10] Peer Performance - Marsh & McLennan reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.12, exceeding estimates by 7.6% due to growth in Risk and Insurance Services [11] - Aon reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $4.85 per share, surpassing estimates by 1.9%, driven by organic revenue growth and high retention rates [12] - Hartford Insurance reported Q4 adjusted operating earnings of $4.06 per share, exceeding estimates by 27.9%, supported by higher net investment income and improved loss ratios [13]