POST's Q1 Earnings Coming Up: Will the Stock Extend Its Beat Streak?

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is scheduled to release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on February 5, with investors keen to see if the company can exceed market expectations [1] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is set at $2.2 billion, reflecting a 9.6% increase from the previous year [2] - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by 11 cents over the past month to $1.66 per share, indicating a 4.1% decline compared to the same period last year [2] - POST has achieved an average earnings surprise of 16.5% over the trailing four quarters [2] Performance Drivers - The quarterly performance is expected to benefit from strong momentum in core segments, particularly Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, supported by favorable volume trends and improved supply conditions [3] - Foodservice trends are positive, with increased egg and potato volumes noted at the end of the previous quarter [4] - In Refrigerated Retail, volume growth in dinner sides is anticipated to provide a modest boost to the upcoming quarter's results [4] - The company is entering the year with a balanced egg supply, allowing for a more normalized operating environment and a focus on volume growth [4][5] Seasonal and Product Factors - First-quarter results are expected to gain from seasonal tailwinds in Refrigerated Retail, along with support from new private label products launched towards the end of fiscal 2025 [6] - Demand remains strong for higher value-added egg products, with supply recovering from previous disruptions [5] Profitability Outlook - However, normalization of HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) is likely to exert pressure on first-quarter EBITDA, alongside typical seasonal declines in cereal performance in the U.S. and U.K. [7] - Near-term profitability may be moderated as the business transitions to a more normalized operating environment [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for POST, with an Earnings ESP of -2.82% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [8][9]