未来美联储主席是鸽是鹰?小摩：沃什立场恐难持久，警惕中期选举后转向

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report analyzes the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, highlighting his shift from hawkish to dovish rhetoric, aligning with the current government's monetary policy preferences [1] Group 1: Policy Stance and Implications - Warsh, who served on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011, may advocate for interest rate cuts this year, but risks reverting to a hawkish stance post-midterm elections, potentially leading to significant policy adjustments [1] - The report emphasizes that despite the Chairman's influence, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members do not always comply with the Chairman's views, as evidenced by historical instances of the Chairman losing votes [1][2] Group 2: Communication and Decision-Making - To avoid conflicts, past Chairmen have engaged in bilateral communications with committee members before meetings, indicating that Warsh would need to present compelling arguments for any proposed rate cuts [2] - The report questions Warsh's stance on reducing the Fed's balance sheet, suggesting that while he believes it would lower rates, traditional views indicate it may exert upward pressure on long-term rates, conflicting with the government's goal of lowering mortgage rates [2] Group 3: Political Landscape and Confirmation Process - The political complexity surrounding Warsh's nomination is highlighted, with uncertainty about whether he will fill the expiring seat of Milan, as Powell has not announced his future plans [2] - Senator Tillis has stated he will oppose any Fed nominee until the investigation into Powell concludes, creating a political stalemate that could result in Powell remaining as interim Chairman, providing political leverage for the government to resolve the investigation and confirm Warsh later [3] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains its view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, citing recent data showing core PCE inflation diverging from policy targets, which undermines the rationale for rate cuts [3]