中泰证券：电煤消费规模是否已经达峰？

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that thermal power generation and coal demand have reached a peak plateau by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, driven by policies prioritizing clean energy and the ongoing transition of thermal power's role in the energy system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Thermal Power - Thermal power is transitioning from a primary energy source to a peak-shaving and supporting role, with its share of total power generation expected to decline from 74.37% in 2016 to 64.79% by 2025 [2]. - Despite a long-term downward trend in thermal power generation and coal demand, the current high level of installed capacity and a temporary slowdown in new energy installations may lead to a stable operation or even a short-term rebound in thermal power generation and coal demand [1][4]. - The installed capacity of thermal power is expected to continue expanding, with new installations projected to reach 87 GW, 86 GW, and 43 GW in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, resulting in total capacities of 1626 GW, 1712 GW, and 1755 GW [4]. Group 2: Clean Energy - Clean energy is becoming the main source of incremental power generation, gradually replacing thermal power in the energy supply structure under the dual carbon goals and the framework of the new power system [4][6]. - Wind power is expected to see a new wave of installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with annual new installations projected to be no less than 12 million kilowatts, significantly contributing to future power generation [6]. - Solar power's importance as a substitute energy source has been increasingly recognized, with projected new installations of 192 GW, 139 GW, and 153 GW from 2026 to 2028, leading to total capacities of 1393 GW, 1533 GW, and 1686 GW [7]. Group 3: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Hydropower is expected to enter a concentrated production period, with new installations projected to reach 17 GW, 18 GW, and 33 GW from 2026 to 2028, enhancing the system's peak-shaving capabilities [5]. - Nuclear power is anticipated to provide stable and reliable base-load energy, with new installations expected to reach 11 GW, 7 GW, and 12 GW from 2026 to 2028, contributing to long-term stable growth in the power system [7]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the context of prioritizing clean energy and the accelerated construction of a new power system, thermal power generation and coal demand are expected to remain at high levels, presenting investment opportunities in coal-power integrated enterprises with stable cash flows and strong profit potential [8].