中泰证券2025年A股业绩前瞻：结构分化加剧 资源与制造板块领跑

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities emphasizes a systematic expansion strategy while avoiding consumer-related products, focusing instead on commodities with strong demand and certainty, such as precious metals, new energy metals, and long-term energy alternatives like solar and nuclear power [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast Overview - As of January 31, 2026, 2,963 listed companies have issued earnings warnings, with a predominant "reporting worries" tone; 1,095 companies reported positive earnings (approximately 37%), while 1,867 companies reported negative earnings (approximately 63%) [1] - Overall, the profitability of listed companies is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025, although it remains in a weak channel, with significant disparities in performance among companies [1] Group 2: Industry Performance Analysis - Industries with concentrated positive earnings forecasts in 2025 include non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, automotive, and public utilities, while industries with concentrated negative forecasts include coal, real estate, light manufacturing, food and beverage, and construction decoration [2] - The non-bank financial sector is expected to see significant improvements due to a recovering capital market environment and increased investment returns, with active market trading and a return to normalcy in IPOs and refinancing boosting brokerage and investment banking revenues [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive outlook, with approximately 66% of companies expected to report favorable earnings, driven by rising commodity prices and capacity releases [2] Group 3: Key Sector Outlook - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is anticipated to continue its recovery in 2025, supported by policy encouragement and strong market interest in technology stocks, particularly in AI [4] - High-end manufacturing, particularly in the renewable energy equipment sector, is expected to show signs of recovery by early 2026 after experiencing a downturn in 2025 [4] - Traditional industries such as retail and food and beverage are expected to face weak earnings forecasts in 2025, reflecting sluggish growth in consumer income and spending [4]