有色板块遭遇“抛售潮”！分析人士：市场波动加剧 需谨慎交易

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, driven by falling gold and silver prices, with major futures contracts hitting their daily limit down [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close on Monday, major futures contracts for copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and aluminum alloy have all hit their daily limit down, with other varieties also experiencing declines [1] - The trading volume in the non-ferrous metal sector reached a recent high last Friday but saw a decline on Monday, although it remained at elevated levels [2] Group 2: Price Movements - In the night trading session, international copper futures fell by 1.11%, while domestic copper futures dropped by 1.01%. Other metals like aluminum and nickel also saw declines of 2.12% and 2.83%, respectively [3] - The absolute inventory of copper globally exceeds 1.3 million tons, indicating significant downward pressure on prices, while domestic aluminum inventory has reached 1 million tons, reflecting a weaker supply-demand structure compared to previous years [4] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair has strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar and increased pressure on non-ferrous metals [3] - The market is currently observing marginal changes in Fed policy, with high volatility in related commodities likely to continue. However, there is a long-term positive outlook for copper and aluminum demand [3][4] Group 4: Seasonal Factors - The demand for basic metals is expected to be suppressed around the Spring Festival, leading to seasonal inventory accumulation that may put further pressure on prices [5] - After the Spring Festival, if downstream recovery progresses better than expected, along with effective domestic growth policies and clearer Fed policy expectations, the non-ferrous metal sector may stabilize and rebound by early March [4]