Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) Chang Jiang Shang Bao·2026-02-03 00:25Core Viewpoint - The snack giant Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) has seen its "high-end cost-performance" strategy fail after three years, leading to a significant decline in expected profits for 2025 [1][7]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 135 million to 175 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of approximately 60% [1][3]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 45 million to 65 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of around 80% [1][3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 161 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 57 million yuan, both showing significant declines of 52.91% and 78.57% respectively compared to the previous year [4][11]. Strategic Challenges - The company attributes the profit decline to several factors, including structural misalignment during the sales peak season, significant increases in nut raw material prices, and proactive adjustments to the sales structure [5][6]. - Despite the downturn, Three Squirrels remains committed to its "high-end cost-performance" strategy, aiming for quality and differentiation [7]. Marketing and Sales Expenses - In 2024, the company spent 1.2 billion yuan on customer acquisition, and in the first three quarters of 2025, sales expenses exceeded 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24% [2][12]. - The high sales expenses, primarily due to platform service and promotional costs, have significantly impacted profitability, with the net profit margin dropping to 1.97% [11][14]. Comparison with Competitors - Competitors like Wancheng Group and Mingming are implementing "extreme cost-performance" strategies, achieving substantial profit increases, while Three Squirrels' strategy has not yielded similar results [8].