为什么这波 AI 浪潮没有带来大量的就业岗位？

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in demand for mid-level product managers (PMs) in China's internet industry, with a reported drop of approximately 42% compared to the peak in 2021, particularly affecting junior positions [1][3] - The rise of AI is transforming the role of PMs, leading to the obsolescence of many middle-layer PM functions as AI takes over tasks that were previously manual and complex [3][6] - The future of PM roles is predicted to evolve into four distinct paths by 2025-2030, emphasizing the need for strategic thinking and AI integration [8][10] Group 1: Employment Trends - The demand for product managers in major Chinese cities has sharply decreased, with junior positions experiencing the most significant cuts [1] - The traditional reliance on large teams for product development is diminishing as companies adopt AI tools to streamline processes [3][6] Group 2: AI Impact on Product Management - AI is shifting the focus from graphical user interfaces (GUIs) to language user interfaces (LUIs), allowing users to generate insights through simple commands, thereby reducing the need for PMs who manage detailed functionalities [3][6] - The efficiency of PMs is expected to increase dramatically, with reports indicating a potential 300% boost in productivity when utilizing AI tools for tasks like generating product requirement documents (PRDs) [6][10] Group 3: Future Predictions for PM Roles - The organizational structure of internet companies is anticipated to become "dumbbell-shaped," requiring either top-level strategic PMs or bottom-level AI operational roles, while middle-layer PMs may become obsolete [8][10] - The emergence of "embodied intelligence" is expected to create new job opportunities for PMs in hardware and AI integration by around 2027 [9] - Cost efficiency will become a primary consideration for PMs, with a focus on calculating the return on investment (ROI) for each feature launched [10] Group 4: Evolution of PM Responsibilities - The role of PMs is evolving from traditional functions to more technical responsibilities, requiring knowledge of AI models and system commands [13] - The rise of "super individuals" in the startup ecosystem indicates a shift towards smaller, highly skilled teams capable of managing significant projects without the need for large-scale hiring [13]