有色板块遭遇“抛售潮”!分析人士：市场波动加剧，需谨慎交易

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, driven by falling gold and silver prices, with major contracts hitting their daily limits and other varieties also declining [1][3]. Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, major contracts for copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and alloy have seen substantial declines, with copper futures down 9.01% and aluminum futures down 9.01% [2]. - The trading volume in the non-ferrous metal sector reached a recent high last Friday but has since decreased, although it remains elevated compared to previous days [2]. Price Trends and Influences - The night trading session continued the downward trend, with international copper futures down 1.11% and domestic copper futures down 1.01% [3]. - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy, leading to a surge in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which has negatively impacted non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Year-to-date, absolute inventories of copper, aluminum, and nickel are significantly higher than in previous years, indicating weak price support from supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Global copper inventories exceed 1.3 million tons, putting upward pressure on prices, while domestic aluminum inventories have reached 1 million tons, reflecting weaker supply-demand structures compared to previous years [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent rapid increases in copper prices have led to a cooling of bullish sentiment, with the market potentially shifting towards fundamental trading [5]. - Seasonal demand suppression and inventory accumulation are expected to pressure prices leading up to the Chinese New Year, with a potential rebound in March if downstream recovery exceeds expectations [5][6].