Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-02-03 01:15Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a historic crash last Friday, with silver plunging nearly 30% in a single day and gold also seeing significant declines. Analysts attribute this to a technical liquidation caused by overcrowded positions and margin increases rather than a fundamental shift in market logic [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Data - iShares Silver Trust fell 28.5% to $75.44, marking the largest single-day drop in history, while SPDR Gold Shares dropped 10.3% to $444.95 [1]. - Silver's volatility surged to extreme levels not seen since the global financial crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns, with ETF nominal trading volume exceeding $32 billion [1]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements, which forced many leveraged positions to liquidate before the weekend, accelerating the price drop [3]. Group 2: Institutional Analysis and Predictions - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and investor demand [2]. - The bank forecasts that central bank gold purchases will reach 800 tons by 2026, as the trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves continues [2]. - In contrast, Morgan Stanley is more cautious about silver, noting the lack of clear structural buyers like central banks, which may lead to deeper corrections compared to gold [2]. Group 3: Technical Adjustments and Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the recent sell-off should not be over-interpreted, viewing it as a technical adjustment due to overcrowded positions [4][5]. - The total exposure in the market was at an extreme level, with systematic quantitative strategies showing significant overcrowding [5]. - Despite the volatility, core trends in the market remain strong, with other asset classes like rare earths and nuclear stocks showing positive performance [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The macro environment is still favorable for physical assets, with Goldman Sachs highlighting the importance of the new Federal Reserve chair's appointment as a key event [6]. - Yardeni Research notes that the fundamental environment should continue to support precious metals, especially in light of recent economic indicators [6]. - Both firms agree that while short-term volatility needs to be digested, gold and silver remain effective hedges against currency devaluation and geopolitical tensions [6].