Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-03 01:26Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the national capacity pricing policy for energy storage is expected to stabilize revenue expectations and stimulate investment enthusiasm among owners, which is significant for investment decisions by state-owned enterprises and other clients [1][7]. Group 1: Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The new capacity pricing mechanism categorizes and improves the pricing for coal, natural gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage, ensuring reasonable pricing for regulatory capacity [2][9]. - The document mandates that the proportion of fixed cost recovery through capacity pricing for coal power plants be raised to no less than 50% by 2026, with potential for further increases based on local market conditions [10]. - For new energy storage, local governments can provide capacity pricing for independent energy storage stations that do not participate in mandatory storage, which will be included in local system operating costs [2][12]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth Projections - The capacity pricing is expected to provide high revenue certainty, significantly boosting domestic energy storage installations, with projections indicating a growth rate of 84% year-on-year for new energy storage installations in 2025, reaching 183 GWh [5][6]. - The establishment of the capacity pricing mechanism is anticipated to enhance the investment return rate for projects, increasing from 4.1% to 6.3% with a capacity price of 55 yuan/kW [5][4]. - The capacity pricing policy is seen as a critical support for the independent development of energy storage, transitioning the industry from cost competition to value creation [1][7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The introduction of a reliability capacity compensation mechanism will strengthen assessments and encourage owners to improve the quality of energy storage products, benefiting high-quality products and promoting industry consolidation [6][7]. - The policy changes are expected to lead to a rational return of investment in the pumped storage sector, with new projects relying more on actual market demand [11][13]. - The energy transition is supported by the development of regulatory power sources, which will help alleviate downward pressure on electricity prices and enhance the absorption of renewable energy [9][13].