2026年美联储首场会议：美元信用重新定价的开端

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting signals a pause in interest rate cuts, reflecting a pivotal moment in the dollar's strength, suggesting a long-term decline in the dollar's dominance [2] Short-term Resilience - The dollar's short-term performance is shifting from being driven by economic data to being supported by political factors and the overall strength of the U.S. [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, indicating internal divisions and governance challenges within the Fed [3] - The U.S. economy's real GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised up to 4.4%, supporting the dollar's short-term resilience [4] Political Influence - President Trump nominated Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair, which led to a rise in the dollar index, reflecting market expectations of a hawkish policy stance [5] - Walsh's potential policies, including simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, could further strengthen the dollar in the short term [5] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Fed's cautious approach to inflation, acknowledging current levels above the 2% target while attributing much of it to tariff-induced price increases, aims to balance market expectations and maintain policy flexibility [6][7] - The ongoing RMP plan initiated in December 2025 aims to stabilize bank liquidity, indirectly supporting the dollar [6] Mid-term Dynamics - The dollar's ability to maintain a trading range of 94 to 99 points will depend on personnel changes, economic performance, and tariff policies [8] - The nomination process for the new Fed Chair introduces uncertainty regarding the Fed's mid-term policy direction, which will significantly impact the dollar's trajectory [8] Economic Performance - The Fed's upgrade of the U.S. economic activity description from "moderate expansion" to "robust expansion" is a key factor supporting the dollar's short-term outlook, though long-term sustainability remains uncertain [9] Tariff Policy Impact - The Fed's assessment of tariffs and inflation is contingent on the absence of new significant tariff increases, indicating potential volatility in the dollar's mid-term performance [9] Long-term Outlook - The long-term fate of the dollar hinges on the revaluation of its credit rather than its hegemonic status, influenced by the Fed's independence and personnel dynamics [10] - Trump's administration aims to weaken dollar dominance to enhance U.S. export competitiveness, which could lead to a managed depreciation of the dollar if successful [10][11] Scenarios for Future Dollar Value - If the U.S. successfully restores its domestic industry and maintains Fed independence, the dollar may experience a managed depreciation without a chaotic decline [11] - Conversely, if the Fed loses its independence and succumbs to political pressures, a significant decline in the dollar's value and a restructuring of the global monetary order could occur [12]