Core Viewpoint - The software industry is facing significant risks, leading to a sell-off of U.S. publicly traded private equity (PE) and business development companies (BDC) due to concerns over the valuation of billions in private software debt [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 3, following reports from Goldman Sachs and Barclays, there was a notable sell-off in the market, with Blue Owl Capital's stock dropping approximately 5% and other industry leaders like Ares Capital and Sixth Street Specialty Lending declining over 3% [2]. - A report from Goldman Sachs indicated that hedge funds are rapidly rotating out of software stocks, marking the highest net sell-off in the tech sector since September 2024, with software stocks leading the decline [4]. Group 2: Impact on Private Credit Institutions - The sell-off has severely impacted private credit institutions that finance software companies, with a software stock index plummeting 15% in January, the largest monthly drop since October 2008 [5]. - Barclays analysts highlighted that software constitutes about 20% of BDC portfolios, making them particularly sensitive to declines in software equity and credit valuations, with total exposure estimated at $100 billion [7]. Group 3: Concerns Over Default Rates - UBS strategists warned that if AI leads to the large-scale elimination of traditional software companies, default rates in U.S. private credit could soar to as high as 13% [9]. - Apollo Global Management has already begun reducing its software exposure from 20% to below 10%, indicating a cautious approach towards the software sector [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Analyst Opinions - Despite the prevailing panic, some analysts believe the market may be overreacting, as there is no new fundamental information to justify the declines [12]. - Recent negative news, including significant withdrawals from funds like Blue Owl and TCP Capital Corp., has heightened investor anxiety ahead of the earnings season, leading to a preemptive market downturn [12].
报道称软件股敞口巨大，美国PE公司遭遇新一轮抛售
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-02-03 01:53