高盛表示DRAM合约价格不跌反升；台积电2nm产能已被预订一空

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.69% to 14128.87 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.46% to 3264.11 points [1] - The Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor ETF (588170) declined by 5.49%, and the Huaxia Semiconductor Equipment ETF (562590) fell by 5.02% [1] - In contrast, the overnight U.S. market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 1.05%, the Nasdaq Composite increase by 0.56%, and the S&P 500 gain 0.54% [1] Industry Insights - Goldman Sachs indicated that despite fluctuations in the spot market, DRAM contract prices are expected to rise significantly, with global storage supply-demand imbalance worsening in Q1, leading to increased forecasts for DRAM and NAND products [2] - TSMC's 2nm capacity has been fully booked by global tech giants, with AMD planning to produce 2nm CPUs starting in 2026, and Google and AWS expected to adopt this technology in Q3 and Q4 of 2027, respectively [2] - PRAM's recent institutional research highlighted that the overall capacity of NOR Flash is linked, with high-value large-capacity products experiencing early price increases due to supply shortages and demand stimulation, leading to a gradual price increase for medium and small-capacity products [2] Company Performance - According to Citic Securities, the global wafer foundry industry remains robust due to the rapid growth in AI computing demand, with TSMC's revenue expected to reach NT$1.05 trillion in Q4 2025, marking a 20.45% year-on-year increase and setting a quarterly record [3] - TSMC's annual revenue is projected to grow by 31.60% to NT$3.81 trillion, indicating significant growth potential compared to mainland China's wafer foundry companies [3] - The Kweichow Moutai Semiconductor ETF (588170) and its linked funds focus on semiconductor equipment and materials, benefiting from the AI revolution and domestic substitution trends in the semiconductor industry [3]