黄金暴跌赖沃什？真相恐怕指向华尔街

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to the potential orthodox policies of Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chair nominee, which may reduce gold's appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation [1] - The volatility in the options market is disrupting gold's role as a barometer for geopolitical conflicts, as indicated by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) gold volatility index recently closing above 44, a level not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [2] - There has been a significant increase in the purchase of "call" options on the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), leading to a feedback loop where banks face risks of price declines, resulting in potential massive sell-offs [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market has seen a dramatic increase in nominal trading volume of blue-chip stock options, from approximately $0.5 trillion in 2020 to nearly $3.5 trillion by 2025, indicating a similar trend in precious metals options trading [3] - The Cboe gold volatility index reached a record level of 44, surpassing both the actual volatility of gold and the implied volatility of the S&P 500, suggesting a frenzy of "call" option buying is contributing to the current market dynamics [3] - Historical analysis shows that when gold's implied volatility exceeds 40%, gold prices tend to rise by an average of 10% three months later, although the current situation may not follow this trend due to prior price increases [6]