强成本VS弱需求 铸造铝合金弱势震荡

Group 1 - The main contract price of casting aluminum alloy futures reached a high of 24,410 yuan/ton last Friday but has since experienced a significant decline due to panic in the precious metals market and expectations of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses commodity prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's waste aluminum market is expected to show an increase in volume and price stability, with domestic recycling systems growing and imports remaining strong to supplement raw material supply. The total waste aluminum recycling volume is projected to reach 8.5927 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2] - The waste aluminum import volume for 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.67%, with December imports showing a significant increase of 19.36% month-on-month and 22.82% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging high-quality recycled material imports and strong domestic demand [2] Group 3 - As of January 29, the waste aluminum market is characterized by a "price without market" situation, with prices rising significantly but actual transactions remaining weak due to supply and demand weaknesses. Supply has tightened due to tax policy adjustments and holiday closures, while demand is suppressed by environmental production limits and rapid price increases [3] Group 4 - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy market is entering a seasonal off-peak period, with significant internal structural differentiation. In December 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 640,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.16% [5] - The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry has continued to decline, reaching 58.9% as of January 29, with expectations of further decreases before the Spring Festival. Social inventory has been decreasing, while factory inventory has been accumulating due to weak demand [5] Group 5 - The outlook for casting aluminum alloy futures prices is expected to be characterized by weak fluctuations, constrained by strong cost support and weak fundamental demand. The solid cost support comes from tight supply of core raw materials and high aluminum prices, while weak demand limits upward price movement [6]