股指 春节前或继续震荡调整

Group 1 - Recent stock index futures have experienced a high-level correction, with a cooling of bullish sentiment as previous policy benefits are digested [1] - The A-share market shows a collective pullback in previously strong sectors such as precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy, while industries like banking, liquor, and agricultural products demonstrate resilience [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in the official manufacturing PMI by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3% in January 2026, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 3.8%, marking four consecutive months of negative growth, the lowest since June 2020 [2] - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with December showing a 5.3% increase in profits [2] Group 3 - Policies aimed at "de-involution" and eliminating outdated production capacity are showing effects, with rising prices in non-ferrous metals and new energy aiding profit recovery in upstream raw material industries [3] - The current inventory cycle has lasted for 30 months, and the profit growth for industrial enterprises has not yet reached an upward turning point, with some sectors actively reducing inventory [3] - In 2026, macro policies are expected to focus on driving demand through infrastructure and manufacturing investments, supported by the issuance of special bonds [3] Group 4 - The foundation for domestic economic recovery remains unstable, with the official manufacturing PMI declining again and corporate profits not significantly improving [4] - Macroeconomic policies are anticipated to remain proactive, with expectations for interest rate cuts to boost market confidence and risk appetite [4]