金荣中国：现货黄金小幅反弹，逐渐摆脱短期情绪逆转氛围

Fundamental Analysis - The core point of the article highlights the recent volatility in the gold market, where spot gold prices experienced a dramatic drop from nearly $5600 to a low of $4401, a decline of nearly $1200, driven by margin increases from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and market reassessment of the Federal Reserve's future leadership [1][3] - The market's reaction is attributed to a subtle shift in policy expectations following President Trump's nomination of former Fed Governor Walsh, which raised concerns about potential tightening of liquidity, thereby diminishing gold's appeal as a hedge against monetary easing [3][4] - The CME's decision to raise margin requirements for precious metal futures exacerbated the sell-off, forcing many speculative long positions to liquidate, creating a vicious cycle of price declines [3] - The strengthening of the US dollar during this period made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, further suppressing demand and contributing to the outflow from gold ETFs [3] Market Outlook - The market is currently assessing Walsh's true policy stance, particularly whether he will lean towards dovish rate cuts or return to a hawkish approach, which could impact gold prices depending on his signals regarding financial conditions [4] - Recent data indicates a rebound in US manufacturing; however, uncertainty surrounding trade policies and the emergence of anti-US buyer sentiment suggest that the recovery may not be stable [4] - The partial government shutdown may delay the release of key employment data, increasing market information asymmetry, and the future attractiveness of gold will depend on whether the economy achieves a "soft landing" or faces further setbacks [4] - Until Walsh's policies are clarified and the macroeconomic landscape becomes clearer, market volatility is expected to remain high [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices tested the $4400 support level, indicating potential market stagnation following the sharp decline [5] - In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the market continues to show selling pressure, with prices failing to recover from the recent lows [5] - Current trading conditions suggest a range between $4550 and $5050, with a cautious approach recommended due to potential liquidity risks [6]