汇丰降雪佛龙(CVX.US)评级至“持有”：业绩虽超预期，估值盛宴恐已近尾声

Core Viewpoint - HSBC has downgraded Chevron's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" while raising the target price from $169 to $180, indicating a cautious assessment of the balance between Chevron's fundamentals and valuation, suggesting that the current stock price reflects positive factors adequately [1] Financial Performance - Chevron's Q4 2024 results exceeded market expectations, with adjusted earnings per share surpassing consensus by 6%, upstream net operating profit at $3.2 billion exceeding expectations by 7%, and total production of 4.05 million barrels per day exceeding consensus by 2% [1] - Downstream net operating profit was $800 million, falling short of market expectations by 6%, with weak performance in the U.S. offset by growth in international operations [1] Cost Reduction and Capital Expenditure - Chevron achieved $1.5 billion in cost reductions in 2024 and aims for cumulative savings of $3-4 billion by the end of 2026, with over 60% of this coming from sustainable efficiency improvements [2] - Capital expenditure guidance remains at $18-19 billion, at the lower end of the 2026-2030 guidance range of $18-21 billion [2] Production Growth and Strategic Outlook - Upstream production is expected to grow by 7-10% by 2026, although a temporary decline of 185,000 to 255,000 barrels per day is anticipated in Q1 due to maintenance and winter weather impacts [2] - CEO Mike Wirth indicated that Venezuelan production could increase by 50% over the next 18-24 months, contingent on additional U.S. government authorization, although this would have limited impact on overall valuation [2] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The valuation logic shift is key to the rating downgrade, with Chevron's stock price rising 16% year-to-date, driven by expectations in Venezuela and oil price rebounds, but HSBC believes the current valuation has priced in positive factors [3] - Quarterly dividends were raised by 4% to $1.78 per share, with an annualized payout of approximately $14 billion, but the 7.2% yield for 2026 lags behind European peers [3] Financial Forecast Adjustments - HSBC has lowered net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 20% and 10%, respectively, reflecting increased depreciation, higher cost guidance, and adjustments in refining profit and WTI oil price assumptions [4] - Despite increased depreciation impacting profits, cash flow forecasts were adjusted minimally, with only a 4% decrease for 2026 and a 1% increase for 2027 [4] Balance Sheet Health - The net debt ratio at the end of the quarter was 15.6%, slightly up from 15.1% in the previous quarter, but still well below the 20-25% target range, providing ample space for dividend growth and potential borrowing [4]