一则传闻引发港股剧震 机构最新观点：可信度极低！

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% at one point before closing with a slight rebound, ending at 26,834.77 points, up 59.20 points, or 0.22% [12][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% during the day but narrowed its losses by the end, closing at 5,467.26 points, down 59.05 points, or 1.07% [15][4] Tax Rumor Impact - A rumor regarding a potential increase in value-added tax rates for the financial and internet value-added services (such as in-game purchases and advertising) led to market turbulence, particularly affecting Tencent Holdings, which saw its stock drop over 6% intraday and close down 2.92% [14][3] - A brokerage firm clarified that the claim of aligning game tax rates with the 32% rate for liquor is misleading, as the two tax types differ significantly in nature and application [18][6] Market Sentiment and Reactions - The brokerage noted that the rumor is typical market noise, likely stemming from an over-interpretation of a single policy document, and suggested that the actual future tax regulations would focus on reviewing tax incentives for certain companies rather than increasing statutory rates [18][6] - The firm emphasized that the core drivers for internet leading companies remain their business growth, AI commercialization, and profitability, indicating that short-term emotional disturbances do not alter long-term fundamentals [18][6] Precious Metals Market - Following a sharp decline, the precious metals market showed signs of stabilization, with spot gold recovering above $4,900 and silver returning above $86 [20][8] - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations that the de-dollarization process will continue, and the recent price adjustments do not signify the end of the bull market [20][8] Fund Flows - Southbound funds continued to show small-scale net buying of Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase exceeding 900 million HKD by the end of the trading day [21][9] Future Outlook - Analysts from Guoyuan International expressed concerns that the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair could lead to market apprehension regarding potential adjustments in monetary policy, impacting risk appetite in the Hong Kong market [23][11] - CITIC Securities indicated that earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have already undergone significant adjustments, and the spring market trend observed since late December 2025 is likely to continue, with large-cap stocks expected to yield relative returns [23][11]