百利好晚盘分析：美国政府停摆 黄金超跌反弹

Gold Market - Recent sharp decline in gold prices triggered by Trump's appointment of Walsh as the next Fed Chair, but this is only a superficial reason. The main cause of the price drop is the previous irrational surge and profit-taking demands leading to significant correction pressure [1] - The fundamental drivers of the gold bull market remain unchanged. Regardless of who leads the Fed, the necessity for monetary easing persists due to the massive U.S. government debt, indicating that easing will continue to dominate market transactions [1] - The independence of the Fed will face serious challenges from Trump, which could significantly undermine the credibility of the dollar, making further dollar depreciation likely [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau believes that the factors driving the gold bull market have not changed, and the bull market remains promising, although short-term bearish influences have not been completely eliminated, indicating potential short-term price correction risks [1] Oil Market - U.S. manufacturing has returned to expansion territory for the first time in a year, with the ISM manufacturing index rising to 52.6, the highest level since August 2022, which is expected to improve oil demand [4] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are easing, with Iran's president initiating nuclear negotiations and both sides potentially holding high-level meetings soon, reducing market expectations for military conflict [4] - The consensus is that there is an oversupply in the oil market, which will limit the potential for price increases. However, recent improvements on both supply and demand sides suggest a greater chance for oil prices to fluctuate upwards [4] - Technically, the oil market shows a short-term weakness with recent price declines, but it remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating that excessive bearish sentiment may not be warranted until a significant drop below this average occurs [4] Dollar Index - After a period of decline, the dollar index has rebounded recently, primarily due to the new Fed Chair exceeding market expectations [5] - The dollar index is expected to continue its rebound, supported by improved U.S. manufacturing data, which suggests resilience in the economy, and the lack of increased expectations for Fed rate cuts following Walsh's appointment [5] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 8.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 91.1% [5] Technical Analysis - For gold, the daily chart indicates a downward movement with a bearish candle, signaling potential risks for further price declines [2] - The 4-hour chart shows some stabilization in the current correction, with a short-term risk of further rebounds, focusing on the resistance level around $4992 [3] - In the oil market, the daily chart reflects a recent decline and bearish candle, suggesting short-term weakness, while the price remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating caution against excessive bearish outlooks [4] - The dollar index's daily chart shows a rebound after a doji candlestick, with potential for continued upward movement, while attention should be paid to the resistance level around $98 [6]