风险偏好下降 沪锡继续下挫【2月3日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Group 1 - Recent sharp decline in precious metals has spread panic to the non-ferrous metals sector, with Shanghai tin futures dropping over 12% at one point, and closing down 6.7% at 383,340 yuan/ton [1] - The catalyst for this decline was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, raising concerns about tightening monetary policy and a stronger dollar, which dampened risk appetite [1] - Domestic refined tin production in January met expectations with little month-on-month change, but production is constrained by raw material shortages, particularly in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces [1] Group 2 - Demand is showing structural differentiation, with traditional sectors like consumer electronics and tinplate performing poorly, while emerging sectors such as lightweight components for electric vehicles and solder for AI servers provide medium to long-term support for tin prices [2] - The overall operating rate of downstream processing enterprises remains stable, with no significant fluctuations observed [2] - The market is transitioning from a "tight supply expectation" to a "supply-demand rebalancing," which may suppress the upward price elasticity, despite expectations of marginal improvement in tin ore supply [2]