Sublime China Information (SZ:301299) Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng·2026-02-03 10:16Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have experienced consecutive increases in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton respectively, leading to higher consumer fuel costs [1][2]. Group 1: Price Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that from February 3, 2026, gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter respectively [1]. - Consumers filling a 50-liter tank will incur an additional cost of approximately 8 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. affecting production, with Brent crude oil prices initially exceeding $70 per barrel before dropping to around $66 [2]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the International Energy Agency has increased its oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that after the recent price adjustments, the price change rate may turn negative, with significant variability in future crude oil prices [3]. - Increased gasoline demand is expected due to the Spring Festival travel season, while diesel demand remains subdued due to reduced construction activities [3]. - Domestic supply of refined oil is expected to be relatively ample, with increased operational capacity in refineries, leading to potential downward pressure on gasoline and diesel prices in the short term [3].