【1月策略简评】流动性宽松，债券市场有望保持平稳运行

Economic Growth and Investment - The GDP growth for the year 2025 is projected at 5.0%, achieving the annual economic growth target, characterized by a "high first, low second" structure and stronger external demand compared to internal demand [2] - In December 2025, industrial production accelerated, particularly in new momentum sectors such as pharmaceuticals, specialized equipment, and computer communications [2] - Fixed asset investment continued to decline throughout 2025, recording negative growth, but is expected to rebound in 2026 due to new policy financial tools and increased special bond investments [2] Consumer and Price Trends - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023, primarily driven by increased food prices [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also turned positive, supported by improved supply-demand order from "anti-involution" policies and rising commodity prices [3] - Retail sales growth slowed to a new low for 2023, but service consumption showed improvement, indicating a potential bottoming out of certain consumer goods [2][3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal revenue saw a significant decline at year-end, with major tax categories dropping, while fiscal expenditure decreased at a slower rate [3] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain at a high level of 4.0%, ensuring that expenditure efforts will not diminish [3] - The central bank announced a reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and expanded their scope, indicating ongoing targeted support for key sectors [3] External Environment and Market Trends - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January, aligning with expectations, while continuing its asset purchase program [4] - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally in January, with emerging markets performing particularly well, and A-share indices all rising [4] - The bond market is expected to remain stable under conditions of liquidity easing and policy support, with certain bonds still holding investment value [5]