Societe Generale(US:SCGLY) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-03 11:57Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in gold prices, highlighting a significant drop followed by a rebound, and notes that some investors are betting on gold prices reaching up to $20,000 by the end of the year [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The commodity team at Societe Generale, led by Mike Haigh, has observed an increase in options trading betting on gold prices reaching $10,000, $15,000, and even $20,000 by year-end [2][8]. - Following a dramatic drop, gold futures prices rebounded by 5% to $4,900 [3][10]. - The recent volatility was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which indicated that institutional chaos was lower than expected, leading to a reassessment of monetary policy and a rise in both the dollar and interest rates [3][10]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The analysis indicates a shift in market sentiment, with a notable increase in put options at a strike price of $4,000, although extreme bets are less common, suggesting a bullish sentiment [3][10]. - The influx of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been a significant driver of gold price increases, with this impact recently amplified [3][11]. - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that two weeks prior, net long positions in gold reached $78 billion, marking a historical high [11]. Group 3: Risk Management - The crowded positions in the market led to forced liquidations as gold prices fell below stop-loss limits, resulting in increased margin calls and a reduction in risk by quantitative funds [4][11]. - The end-of-month effect has heightened volatility in risk aversion, as fund managers seek to protect gains made in January [4][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Societe Generale maintains a bullish outlook on gold, viewing the recent adjustment as a healthy phenomenon [5][11]. - The team believes that despite the removal of uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve leadership, the fundamental logic supporting gold prices remains intact, and they view pullbacks as potentially healthy [5][11].