每日投行/机构观点梳理（2026-02-03）

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley reports that under Kevin Warsh's leadership, changes in the Federal Reserve are likely to manifest through balance sheet policies rather than interest rates, indicating a gradual reduction in the Fed's balance sheet will lower banks' demand for reserves [1] - The report suggests that a Federal Reserve with a smaller "presence" in communication and balance sheet size could lead to a steeper yield curve [1] - Capital Economics highlights that Warsh's primary challenge will be convincing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members to accept his view on lower interest rates, as he only holds one vote among twelve [5] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - JPMorgan Private Bank views the recent decline in gold prices as a healthy technical correction, with a year-end price target raised to $6,150 per ounce, reflecting a range of $6,000 to $6,300 [2] - Deutsche Bank maintains a bullish outlook on gold, expecting prices to reach $6,000 per ounce, citing ongoing positive factors such as central bank buying [3] - Sucden Financial analysts assert that despite recent price drops due to speculative position liquidations, the long-term structural support for precious metals remains intact, predicting a mild rebound in the near term [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 1.3 basis points to 3.512% and the 10-year yield down 2.5 basis points to 4.215% [6] - The market's risk sentiment has deteriorated significantly, contributing to a flight to safe-haven assets, including U.S. Treasuries [6] Group 4: Industry Insights and Future Projections - Morgan Stanley projects that the South Korean composite index (Kospi) could reach 7,500 points by 2026, driven by rising chip prices and ongoing reforms in corporate governance and taxation [8] - Citic Securities anticipates rapid growth in domestic energy storage installations, supported by new national pricing mechanisms, and sees investment value in leading firms within the energy storage industry [9] - Zhongtai Securities forecasts a continued recovery in the TMT sector, driven by supportive policies and strong market interest in technology stocks, particularly in AI [12]