节前债稳，节后股暖？

Core Viewpoint - The market performance at the beginning of 2026 is breaking traditional historical patterns, with significant divergence between stocks and bonds observed in the Chinese capital market [1]. Market Environment - The A-share market is expected to experience a "spring rally" after the Spring Festival, with a shift from a defensive large-cap style to a growth-oriented small-cap style [1][5]. - The bond market has shown a "V-shaped" recovery after initial pressure, with a structural interest rate cut of 0.25% by the central bank in January, leading to a stabilization in market sentiment [3][12]. Historical Patterns - Historical data from 2015 to 2025 indicates a clear seasonal pattern in the A-share market, with a 63.64% probability of the CSI 300 index rising in the 30 days before the Spring Festival, while the probability for the CSI 1000 index is only 27.27% [5][6]. - Post-Spring Festival, the CSI 300 index has a 72.73% probability of rising, with an average increase of 3.15%, while the CSI 1000 index shows an 81.82% probability and an average increase of 8.71% [5][6]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market typically shows strength in the 30 days before the Spring Festival due to increased liquidity and strong demand from institutional investors, with a historical average decline of 5.73 basis points in the 1-year bond yield [7][11]. - After the Spring Festival, the bond market may face upward pressure on yields due to changes in policy expectations and increased supply, with an average increase of 1.03 basis points in the 10-year bond yield [7][11]. 2026 Outlook - The foundation for the "spring rally" is expected to be stronger this year due to favorable policy expectations, global liquidity conditions, and a trend of residents allocating more assets to equity markets [12]. - Consumer demand is anticipated to be released earlier than in previous years due to an extended holiday, with expectations for increased spending on travel and consumption [12]. - The bond market is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with reduced necessity for further rate cuts following the January reduction [12]. Potential Changes in Patterns - The traditional "strong bonds, weak stocks" model before the Spring Festival may be disrupted this year, with both markets potentially showing support and increased competition [13]. - The typical post-Spring Festival shift to small-cap growth may be weakened, as large-cap growth could perform well alongside high-dividend assets, leading to a mixed market style rather than a clear transition [13][14].