沃什真的“鹰”吗？分析师：获提名即代表降息倾向，美联储2026年降息或达五次

Group 1 - Steven Major, a prominent bond analyst, suggests that the Federal Reserve, under Kevin Warsh's leadership, may implement more significant interest rate cuts than the market currently anticipates [1] - The market is currently pricing in about two rate cuts, but Major believes there could be four or five cuts instead [1] - The probability of a second rate cut occurring in 2026 is approximately 80%, with the market previously considering the possibility of a third cut [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields remained stable, with the two-year yield at 3.58% and the ten-year yield at 4.29% [2] - The expectation of rate cuts is leading to a potential economic warming and a resurgence of inflation, which is causing investors to favor short-term bonds over long-term U.S. Treasuries [5] - Major expresses skepticism about steepening curve trades and recommends directly buying short-term U.S. Treasuries instead [6]