美联储新掌门上任，2026年江西节奏将如何影响跨境电商？

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Walsh, is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, leading to 2-3 interest rate cuts by 2026, which will influence foreign exchange rates [1] - The Chinese yuan has recently depreciated past the 7 mark, indicating a potential trend as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts historically [1] - China's foreign trade demonstrated resilience in 2025, with total import and export value exceeding $7.5 trillion and a record trade surplus of $1.02 trillion, equivalent to one-fifth of Germany's annual GDP [1] Group 2 - The trade surplus is anticipated to grow in 2026, prompting companies to accelerate currency conversion and contributing to the appreciation of the yuan [1] - The internationalization of the yuan is progressing, with its share in global payment settlements rising to 6.8% by the end of 2025, surpassing the Japanese yen to become the third-largest international currency [1] Group 3 - Unexpected factors that could influence exchange rates include the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," potential new wars, and the complex dynamics of the yuan against the euro, all significantly affected by the dollar [3]