华尔街老兵给市场送来“定心丸”：准备迎接沃什领导下的美联储大幅降息路径

Group 1 - The market's reaction to Kevin Warsh's appointment as the new Federal Reserve Chair is seen as exaggerated, with expectations of more significant interest rate cuts than currently anticipated [1][2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that Warsh's willingness to lower rates is a prerequisite for his nomination, and they predict he may implement four to five rate cuts instead of the market's expectation of two [2][8] - The bond market is stabilizing, with the 2-year yield around 3.58% and the 10-year yield near 4.3%, indicating a belief that Warsh will adopt a more hawkish stance compared to previous candidates [3][7] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs argues that merely relying on Warsh's past hawkish statements to gauge his policy direction is incorrect, and they do not foresee significant balance sheet reduction under his leadership [8] - The expectation of rate cuts may lead to a preference for short-term government bonds over long-term ones, resulting in a steepening yield curve [3][4] - Market participants are advised to focus on short-duration U.S. Treasury assets as a more favorable investment strategy in the current environment [4][3]