2026深圳楼市怎么走？量涨价稳成主流共识

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market demonstrated resilience in 2025, with total residential transactions exceeding 94,000 units, indicating signs of self-recovery [1] - The second-hand housing market showed a slight year-on-year increase of 3%, while the new housing market experienced structural differentiation, with a focus on existing homes and quality properties [1] - A survey conducted by LeYouJia Research Center revealed that 53% of respondents expect transaction volumes to rise in 2026, reflecting growing confidence in the market [1] Transaction Volume Expectations - 53% of survey participants believe transaction volumes will increase, with 18% expecting a significant rise and 35% anticipating a slight increase; 31% expect stability, while 16% foresee a decline [1] - The second-hand housing market recorded over 5,000 transactions for ten consecutive months in 2025, indicating stable trading activity [6] Price Expectations - 43% of respondents expect prices to stabilize, with 15% anticipating a slight increase and 28% expecting steady prices; 30% predict price increases, while 27% foresee declines [3] - The average transaction price for new homes in 2025 was 53,100 yuan per square meter, down 1.7% year-on-year, while second-hand homes averaged 59,000 yuan per square meter, down 6% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline [6] Market Trends - The preference for existing homes has increased due to their ability to mitigate delivery risks, making them a choice for risk-averse buyers [7] - Buyers are now prioritizing higher living standards, focusing on practical layouts, community amenities, and quality property management [8] - The market is witnessing a quicker release of demand, with first-time buyers entering the market early due to fears of rising prices, while upgrade buyers target quality assets in core areas [7] Buyer Sentiment and Expectations - The survey reflects a shift in buyer mindset from basic housing needs to a pursuit of quality living [8] - Buyers are looking for properties that ensure asset safety, practical and comfortable layouts, comprehensive living amenities, and reputable developers [8] - Key expectations from buyers include clearer signals for market stabilization, cost reductions for first-time and upgrade buyers, and enhanced delivery guarantees [9] Future Outlook - The Shenzhen real estate market is expected to move towards a more stable phase, aligning with the public's desire for secure and comfortable housing [10]