中金：沃什难撼美联储扩表 继续看好中美股市和金银铜

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman raises concerns about the potential for a reduction in the balance sheet, but the current liquidity dynamics and fiscal trends suggest that the expansion of the balance sheet is likely to continue, supporting a bullish outlook for global assets, particularly in the Chinese stock market and commodities like gold, silver, and copper [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Liquidity - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been on a stair-step upward trend since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by a monetary policy framework based on "ample reserves" [3]. - The current liquidity situation remains tight, with narrow liquidity (reserves) still below the "ample" threshold, which is a key reason for recent market panic selling [2][5]. - The financial market's reliance on repo financing and the role of U.S. Treasuries as core collateral highlight the inherent contradictions in the combination of fiscal expansion and liquidity policies [5][6]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The upcoming midterm elections create pressure for the Trump administration to avoid fiscal tightening and maintain a focus on fiscal expansion, which is expected to continue [5][6]. - Warsh's potential adherence to Trump's policy priorities may lead to a monetary policy that aligns with fiscal measures, including possible interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion [6]. - The expectation of continued fiscal and monetary easing is likely to support a recovery in nominal economic cycles in the U.S., benefiting global risk assets and commodities [7]. Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - The ongoing expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet may encourage speculative behavior among financial institutions, increasing market volatility and the risk of asset bubbles [7]. - Historical data indicates that financial crises are more likely to occur when liquidity falls below the ample level, emphasizing the importance of maintaining sufficient liquidity in the market [4][8].